Trump and the Republican Party—Precessors and Limits
This article examines Donald Trump’s roots in the Republican Party, both in the popular backlash against immigration as well as more broadly. It also challenges the idea that Trump has developed an unusual degree of control over the GOP. Trumpism is both less new and less dominant than many narratives suggest. The biggest predictor of Trump’s success, when he sought the Republican nomination in the 2016 primary, was support for restricting immigration. When cross-regressed against other factors, it was by far the strongest variable. The well-known demographic differences in his primary support were mostly a product of it. That is, less educated and less religious Republican voters were more pro-Trump than other Republicans largely because they were more strongly anti-immigration. This anti-migration sentiment comes together in complex ways with racial sentiment. On the one hand, a strong sense of white identity seems to be linked to support for Trump, perhaps […]